Super Bowl LVII kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in what is expected to be a very close game. Bettors have rated the Philadelphia Eagles as 1.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have a lot going for them in the title game. The most important weapon is Patrick Mahomes, arguably the NFL’s most explosive quarterback.
Kansas City also has an accomplished head coach, perhaps the best tight end in the league, and an effective defense. The Chiefs are also used to going deep in the playoffs. With Mahomes as the starting quarterback since 2018, the Chiefs have won a Super Bowl as well as an impressive 10 playoff games.
Still, the Chiefs may be more of an underdog than some realize. They will face an Eagles team that exceeded expectations in the regular season and playoffs.
Here’s a quick look at how the Eagles have the advantage in the Super Bowl.
Defense
This unit had an impressive 70 sacks in 2022, which was by far the most in the league. But they also showed up when it mattered. In two playoff games, the Eagles held the New York Giants to seven points and the San Francisco 49ers to seven points.
While the Eagles had just two Pro Bowlers on defense — outside linebacker Haasan Reddick and cornerback Darius Slay — this group is more than just a pair of stars. Veteran defensive tackle Javon Hargrave has been a beast all season. Hargrave and defensive end Josh Sweat, who improved after a breakout season in 2021, have 18.5 sacks in two seasons. The Eagles also have Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, among others, to pressure Mahomes and contain Travis Kelce.
Chiefs lack an elite racing game
The Eagles’ only poor defensive showing was on the road against the Dallas Cowboys on December 24, when they gave up 40 points in a loss. But in that game, the Eagles held star running back Ezekiel Elliott to 55 yards on 16 carries. The Cowboys have a stronger offensive line than the Chiefs and there’s no rusher on the Chiefs as effective as Elliott.
Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has had a strong season for Kansas City. However, he only passed for 26 yards on 10 carries at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship. Significantly outperforming those numbers against an Eagles defense that has more depth and power than the Bengals seems unlikely.
Head coach Andy Reid can’t expect magic from Mahomes on every play. When the Chiefs go to the ground game, the Eagles defense will be up for the challenge.
Dallas Goedert
The Chiefs defensive backs have plenty to worry about with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. While the two wide stars can provide big plays for quarterback Jalen Hurts, don’t be surprised if the Eagles throw to their regular tight end on big plays.
Hurts threw Goedert three times in Game 1 against the 49ers in the NFC Championship. The Eagles would score a touchdown on the drive.
On the next three pitches, Hurts failed to throw to Goedert and the Eagles had just one first down in 10 plays. The fifth drive involved a completion to Goedert and the Eagles would later score a touchdown. Practice six saw two completions for Goedert in a three-game drive that ended with running back Boston Scott rushing for a touchdown.
Yes, when Goedert is involved in training good things usually happen for the Eagles. That logic is probably not lost on head coach Nick Sirianni.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo has blitzed less this season and could focus on Goedert. But it may mean opening up receiving opportunities for other players like Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.
Trust
The Eagles blew both their opponents in the playoffs. The Chiefs were blessed with a win over the Bengals and a week earlier didn’t look particularly dominant against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
At the start of the season, there was a lot of talk about the strength of the AFC West. However, it was the NFC East that proved to be the strongest division in the NFL.
The Eagles, who went through a tough challenge in the regular season, have plenty of swagger and weaponry to hold off a great Chiefs team.